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A dynamic eco-evolutionary model predicts slow response of alpine plants to climate warming [Nature Communications]

Keywords : climate-change ecology, ecological modelling, evolutionary ecology

par Frédéric Magné - publié le

Withstanding extinction while facing rapid climate change depends on a species’ ability to track its ecological niche or to evolve a new one. Current methods that predict climate-driven species’ range shifts use ecological modelling without eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here we present an eco-evolutionary forecasting framework that combines niche modelling with individual-based demographic and genetic simulations. Applying our approach to four endemic perennial plant species of the Austrian Alps, we show that accounting for eco-evolutionary dynamics when predicting species’ responses to climate change is crucial.(...)

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