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Amplified plant turnover in response to climate change forecast by Late Quaternary records [Nature Climate Change / Letter]

Subject terms : biogeography, climate-change ecology

par Frédéric Magné - publié le

Conservation decisions are informed by twenty-first-century climate impact projections that typically predict high extinction risk. Conversely, the palaeorecord shows strong sensitivity of species abundances and distributions to past climate changes, but few clear instances of extinctions attributable to rising temperatures. However, few studies have incorporated palaeoecological data into projections of future distributions. Here we project changes in abundance and conservation status under a climate warming scenario for 187 European and North American plant taxa using niche-based models calibrated against taxa–climate relationships for the past 21,000 years. (...)

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