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Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land use changes [Global Change Biology]

Keywords : biodiversity projections, climate change, ecological forecasting, land cover change, land system science, predictive models, species distribution models, storylines

par Frédéric Magné - publié le

Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land use and land cover change projections.(...)

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