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Current extinction rates of reptiles and amphibians [PNAS]

Keywords : amphibians, Bayesian methods, extinction rates, reptiles

par Frédéric Magné - publié le

There is broad concern that a mass extinction of amphibians and reptiles is now underway. Here I apply an extremely conservative Bayesian method to estimate the number of recent amphibian and squamate extinctions in nine important tropical and subtropical regions. The data stem from a combination of museum collection databases and published site surveys. The method computes an extinction probability for each species by considering its sighting frequency and last sighting date. It infers hardly any extinction when collection dates are randomized and it provides underestimates when artificial extinction events are imposed.(...)

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