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Predicted trajectories of tree community change in Amazonian rainforest fragments [Ecography]

par Frédéric Magné - publié le

A great challenge for ecologists is predicting how communities in fragmented tropical landscapes will change in the future. Available evidence suggests that fragmented tropical tree communities are progressing along a trajectory of ‘retrogressive succession’, in which the community shifts towards an early or mid-successional state that will persist indefinitely. Here, we investigate the potential endpoint of retrogressive succession, examining whether it will eventually lead to the highly depauperate communities that characterise recently abandoned agricultural lands. We tested this hypothesis by using neural networks to construct an empirical model of Amazonian rainforest-tree-community responses to experimental habitat fragmentation. (...)

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